One Big Prediction

A trend that's not going away

I began 2024 the way I began 2023: sitting on my couch, considering the year ahead.

The air is thick with end-of-year predictions from colleagues and Substack writers I admire, mostly based on their expertise or obsessions of the moment. Given the wild uncertainties of 2023, I’m only comfortable making a single prophecy for the year ahead, rather than the usual list of 5 or 10.

It’s the response I give to a question I’m inevitably asked when I lead programs or join a podcast. Given the political backlash around the world, do I expect organizations to backtrack on their commitment to diversity, and their efforts to build more inclusive cultures?

Or as one interviewer recently asked me, “Isn’t DEI becoming passé?”

The answer is: not even remotely, in my view.

Maybe the language will change, maybe the term DEI will pass from favor, as most such acronyms do. But that doesn’t mean companies will abandon their efforts to broaden the base from which they draw talent, or cease trying to build cultures in which the widest range of people feel welcome.

There’s pretty much no chance of a backtrack because the available talent pool is extremely diverse. And it’s only becoming more so, given the global nature of the economy. In addition, companies are more reliant than ever on the skill, creativity, and engagement of people at every level. That’s what adds value to both products and services, while making incremental but continuous improvement possible.

So the need to attract and engage a diverse range of talent is not going away.

Yet people who bring experiences, loyalties, beliefs, and values that differ from what traditional leaders may expect are more likely to feel– and to be– undervalued, which makes it harder for them to feel ownership in their organizations. This is precisely why diversity mandates inclusion. And why it will remain a kind of holy grail for companies seeking to make the best of available talent.

As readers know, I’ve been working in and writing about women’s leadership for nearly 35 years. This means I’ve been hearing predictions of its imminent decline for decades.

“Women’s leadership is so 1990s.”

“It’s so early 2000s.”

“Given the recession, companies can not be expected to focus their efforts on women” (This was the big prediction in the aftermath of 2008).

And so forth.

Yet women’s leadership has slowly and steadily become a full-fledged global asset, as companies realize they cannot hope to remain competitive if they draw talent from only one half of the human race.

I’m now hearing “it’s so over” skepticism about DEI, for similar reasons but with new twists (creeping authoritarianism, the spread of bro culture, anti- immigrant backlash, whatever). And yes, I believe that how we address DEI will most certainly evolve, with less emphasis on identifying bias and more on defining the kind of behaviors that build, enliven, and harmonize company cultures.

But heading into decline? Not a chance. In this particular arena, I foresee a bright future, in 2024 and beyond.

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